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UK Covid-19 testing, infections and deaths. The carnage is slowing down.

With coronavirus fatalities still running at 551 per day, there’s no cause to celebrate yet – but we do deserve a pat on the back (from a safe distance, of course!) We are succeeding at spreading the disease less, and so deaths are reducing.

The rate of positives is reducing quickly

The number of coronavirus tests performed has gone down over the past week, but the number of positives has gone down faster. Testing reduced by 10% over the month and positives by 63%. This suggests that we are still getting tested if we think we might have caught Covid-19, it’s just that fewer people are having symptoms – and even fewer have got it.

Case fatality’s going up, but deaths are down

It isn’t clear why the case fatality ratio’s climbing – there’s no real sign that more cases escaped detection, as testing has been extremely high for the last four weeks. Could be that overstretched hospitals are less able to save patients with Covid-19, or maybe cases weren’t being so efficiently picked up after all.

Currently, our ratio’s still well within the ballpark of 2.5% suggested by most analysts (they tend to range from 2.3% to 2.9% depending on method) but early signs are that it’s set to rise still further. Changes in the country’s testing strategy will affect this picture although, until that happens, it’s hard to say how.

We can expect about 23,000 more deaths in the next 4 weeks

Applying our current cfr of 2.7% to the last 28 days’ positives (947,688) gives us a figure of 13,299; 475 deaths a day. It’s still an alarming figure, and we need to keep bringing it down!

Mortality is reducing

In the first week of this chart, 22nd – 28th January, we lost an average 1,221 souls to Covid every day. We’ve already got this down to 551 – very encouraging! Let’s be cautiously optimistic. With the vaccine and continued precautions, we stand a good chance of getting this thing under control.


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