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Covid UK: 100,000 dead by the time you read this

This is depressing so I’m going to keep it short. The coronavirus has killed one in every 695 of us so far.

For every 100 Brits who would die in the normal run of things, 118 have died.

In the last 4 weeks 27,187 people died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test, pushing our average for the most recent week up to 1,240 a day.

Our minimum case fatality rate is 2.4%

That’s over 28 days’ cases. If we count only those testing positive within the last 14 days, it goes up to 2.9%.

With a cfr of 2.4% and 1,359,123 positive tests in the last 28 days, we can expect 32,962 more deaths over the next 4 weeks. And this ignores the steady flow of discharged Covid patients who die of related complications a few months later.

One in 50 of us have tested positive within 28 days. The good news (I need some!) is that this number’s going down now. Brace for a dreadful February but, if we stay cautious, things will improve.

Data source: UK government coronavirus dashboard


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