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Lockdown’s working! Covid-19 prevalence hugely reduced.

I’m happy to report some encouraging numbers from the UK!

Covid positivity’s coming down fast

People are still getting tested at a rate of around 600,000 a day, the same as early January. But in mid-January, over 7% of those tests were coming back positive. Now it’s just 4.5% and heading downwards – last week’s average is 2.5% 🙂

Lockdown #3 started on the 5th January 2021. On that day, 12% of UK coronavirus tests were positive – 60,915 new infections were recorded. Yesterday, 10th February, just 1.7% of the tests were positive – 13,013 new infections.

One in 88 of us has tested positive in the last 28 days. It’s still a very high proportion, but nothing like as disastrous as our situation a few weeks ago. Well done, everybody!

Expect 19,000 deaths in the next four weeks

A fairly steady case fatality rate of 2.5% means that around 19,400 of those who’ve tested positive will die. It’s still a frightening number, but 40% down on last month. Another 4 weeks of this will really put a hole in our fatality count, and the vaccination programme should be showing results by then as well.

If you’d like to know more about the case fatality arithmetic, see this post from the 1st Feb.

Stay locked down!

We’re saving each other’s lives

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